However, such fears are so far clearly exaggerated. The overall price picture in the US can be seen in 3 stages. The first is price expectations, that is, ideas about the extent to which inflation has become ingrained in the minds of consumers and businesses. If these expectations are rising, it could be a sign that price increases are coming soon. The second stage is aggregate demand: if people suddenly have more opportunities to spend, this can lead to increased spending and, at the same time, higher prices.
This is measured by unemployment: if there is a sharp surge in the number of Americans getting new jobs, then demand will also jump. And finally, the third stage, or supply shock, which shows how much one-time disruptions helped raise the prices of imported consumer goods or oil.
